Dear cruisers,

This page is intended to offer you some advice and links to useful websites to assist with you passages in the SW Pacific. I am sharing what I have learnt about the area from my time here as a yacht delivery skipper. I am NOT a weather forecaster, nor have I had much training, apart from courses I have attended as part of my various skippers tickets. I am just sharing how I look for weather information, what suits how I work. My policy is always to avoid storms if i can possibly manage to. My reputation as a delivery skipper relies on me getting boats to their destinations in the best possible condition so I take great care to get the best weather reports that I can.

General discussion.

I have found that in general the weather forecasts in the area are quite good but there can be discrepancies between the 2 main computer models I.E. WW3 from NOAA and the European ECMWF model. There are very good charts available based on the WW3 model, which include wind directions and speeds so it's an easy model to use. I therefore tend to plan my passages on the WW3 model but I ALWAYS check the ECMWF model as well as it often picks up systems that WW3 has missed (2 cyclones in 2006!). When amongst the SW Pacific Islands I also look at the Fiji Met Office forecasts and I also use the 3 day New Zealand Met Office forecasts, which are very good. If in doubt I contact Bob McDavitt from the New Zealand Met Office and discuss the situation with him before departing.

Seasonal.

My initial passage plans are made using Visual Passage Planner. This is a digital version of all the data in Ocean Passages of the World. VPP gives me an idea of the overall feasibility of a pasage and probable best course. I then use chart plotting software to make a passage plan for quoting my deliveries.

Long range (>10 days).

There are 2 main indications of long range prospects.

1. Is it an El Nino or a La Nina year?

General El Nino discussion websites are; El Nino description,  El Nino discussion, NOAA-PMEL-TAO - What is an El Niņo (ENSO) and Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Project Home Page

An El Nino forecast is available here; El Nino Forecast and sea temperature charts are available here (central Pacific), here (SW Pacific)and here (SW Pacific)

2. What is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) doing? I use the MJO in conjunction with Sea Surface temperature mainly during shoulder seasons to determine how bad the hurricane risk might be.

General Madden Julian information websites are CDC Experimental MJO Forecasts and The Madden-Julian oscillation

A 2 week MJO forecast is available here and here

Medium range (3-10 days).

We are spoilt for choice! The main websites I use are;

Weatheronline. Marine Weather Oceania  8 day forecasts including wind strength and direction from the ECMWF model (I think). A bit frustrating as some areas are completely missed!

Metvuw. Metvuw This is the site I go to first for deliveries in the SW Pacific as it's nicely organised and includes rain, wind strength and direction on the detailed charts. WW3 model.

Stormsurf has a nice animation for 7 days Stormsurf 7 day wind WW3

The ECMWF site that I use to compare with the WW3 model is EC model MSL baro + 850 hpa winds Note that the 850hPa winds are at around 5000 feet or 1500m up.

Bob McDavitt's weekly discussion forecasts are very useful and are available by subscription form Pangolin where one can also subscribe to the useful Fiji Fleet GRIBS

Passage plans.

If I want a full passage plan I obtain one from Bob McDavitt. Bob uses Expedition software. Expedition has been developed for racing, not cruising so it is important to give Bob the maximum wind strength (according to direction) that I am happy with.

Barometer notes.

I use the digital barometer on my hand held chart plotter or watch. Every trip I check the reading for accuracy before I depart. I want to watch trends but also know where I am in a system so a calibrated barometer is essential.

 

Thanks to Bob McDavitt for helping me gain the knowledge to allow me to compile this page.

I hope you found this information of value. If there were broken links or you know of some nice weather site that I have not included please send me an email.

Fair winds, Chris Bone.